Notícias de trading

The Dow Jones Industrial Average trades just above 52,100 and has spent the morning going nowhere, on the day the Federal Reserve is expected to raise its rate for the first time since 2023. That is not indifference.

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the Euro (EUR) is consolidating in a tight range around the mid-1.15s as markets await the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley notes the US Dollar (USD) has outperformed G10 peers on expectations the Fed will deliver around 100 bps of tightening over 12 months, but warns this may be excessive.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes GBP/USD is trading heavy near its 200-day moving average as United Kingdom (UK) gilts stabilize. August Consumer Price Index (CPI) slightly exceeded the Bank of England's (BoE) projections, but he still expects the BoE to hold rates at 3.75%.

AUD/USD trades in a narrow range on Wednesday as investors hold back from taking strong positions ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement. At the time of writing, AUD/USD trades around 0.7134, little changed on the day.

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report USD/CAD is steady near 1.39 as markets await the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) summary of deliberations. They note the BoC is likely to sound more hawkish after firmer inflation data and still-accommodative policy.

Nomura’s Global Markets Research team, including Josie Anderson, George Buckley and Andrzej Szczepaniak, notes that UK CPI data for August came in broadly as expected, with headline inflation at 3.1% and core and services measures unchanged.

The United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed) announces its interest rate decision on Wednesday, following another pivotal meeting that could provide key insights into the monetary policy outlook heading into the end of the year.

ING’s Bert Colijn notes that Eurozone industrial production slipped by 0.1% in both June and July, leaving output broadly unchanged from a year earlier. He highlights resilience in capital goods and energy, but continued weakness in consumer-focused sectors, especially non-durable goods.

EUR/USD consolidates losses on Wednesday as traders avoid taking strong directional positions ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement.

Silver (XAG/USD) rebounds on Wednesday and trades around $64.00 per troy ounce at the time of writing, up 1.32% on the day.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad says the US Dollar (USD) remains supported by energy-driven risk aversion ahead of the FOMC decision.

MUFG’s Henry Cook expects the Bank of England to deliver a hawkish hold, with UK inflation driven higher by energy and headline CPI projected to exceed 4% after the January price cap reset.

Rabobank’s Senior Macro Strategist Bas van Geffen notes that EUR money markets now discount more than four additional European Central Bank (ECB) rate hikes beyond the two already delivered, as investors push expectations ahead of policymakers.

Retail Sales in the United States increased to $773.9 billion in August, the US Census Bureau reported on Wednesday. This print reversed the 0.5% contraction recorded in the previous month and came in above market expectations (+0.8%). On a yearly basis, Retail Sales were up 6.0% in this period.

Deutsche Bank’s Shreyas Gopal notes that Bank of England (BoE) meetings have repeatedly seen early market speculation on tightening fade as decisions approach, keeping the Pound stable and EUR/GBP in a narrow range.

TD Securities’ Jayati Bharadwaj expects a divided Congress to keep macro fundamentals as the main driver for FX, maintaining a modestly bearish view on the Dollar into year-end.

EUR/GBP extends its recovery on Wednesday after bouncing from the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.8555 on Monday, its lowest level in two weeks.

BNY’s Geoff Yu argues that while Eurozone growth and inflation risks are real, being long the Euro (EUR) is not the best way to express this view.

Rabobank’s Senior Macro Strategist Bas van Geffen highlights that United Kingdom (UK) inflation matched expectations at 3.1% y/y, with higher energy and fuel prices driving the rise, while core and services Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained unchanged.