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8 Aug 2014
UK June Unemployment Rate expected to fall further but wages to remain muted - TD Securities
FXStreet (Łódź) - Jacqui Douglas, Senior Global Strategist at TD Securities, believes that UK June unemployment data, due out on Wednesday next week, will show a further drop in an unemployment rate but at the same time weak wage growth.
Key quotes
"For the unemployment rate, early consensus is looking for a 0.1ppt drop to 6.4% for June, but we see downside (better) risk and look for an even larger drop to 6.3%."
"On wage growth, it looks like the ex-bonus number should remain unchanged at its record-low level of 0.7% Y/Y, while headline wage growth is likely to slip into negative territory at -0.1% Y/Y."
"However, this should be the low for the cycle as the funny business around last year’s change in tax rates finally works its way out of the data."
Key quotes
"For the unemployment rate, early consensus is looking for a 0.1ppt drop to 6.4% for June, but we see downside (better) risk and look for an even larger drop to 6.3%."
"On wage growth, it looks like the ex-bonus number should remain unchanged at its record-low level of 0.7% Y/Y, while headline wage growth is likely to slip into negative territory at -0.1% Y/Y."
"However, this should be the low for the cycle as the funny business around last year’s change in tax rates finally works its way out of the data."